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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

However the latest race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still